Whither Palin?

Well, the results are out and while the polls generally overestimated the level of Obama's support, they didn't over-overestimate it to the point of missing a hidden McCain victory. I believe Scott Rassmussen's group came the closest on the quadriennial dart throw, predicting a 6.5% advantage in people identifying themselves with Democrats over Republicans. And there's your difference, more or less. The PUMAs are apparently much rarer animals than they chose to let on.

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama. Now all you have to do is deliver on everything you've promised, and quite frankly you have as much chance to do so as your average department store Santa does to get everything under the trees of the kids they meet each year. It does not escape my notice that Barack Obama is the first man of African extraction to become the President. This is a big deal, but whether it changes much of anything with regard to race relations I don't really know. If GOP people opposing his agriculture plan, for instance, get the Race Card^TM deployed against them, little will have been accomplished.

Giving Her The Finger...Or At Least Pointing It

The recriminations are now beginning to boil out of the McCain camp, with a number of fingers pointed at Sarah Palin. Here's just a sample, according to Carl Cameron of Fox News Channel these kinds of things will be coming out for days.



Hey, why take blame when you can pass it on to others? The McCain campaign, unable to craft an economic message until an unlicensed plumber talked to Barack Obama in front of a rope line, figures it must all the Caribou Barbie's fault. For the record I tend to doubt she thought 'Africa' was one country.

The good thing for Sarah is that she has her day job, and can go back to Alaska where her popularity is only slightly dimmed (from 80%) and the Personnel Board has cleared her of any wrongdoing. She might have to fight the legislature over the Branchflower report, but chances are pretty good that they won't go after her. For one thing, it will look petty. For another, she's no threat to Obama and got her ears boxed on the national stage in a way that the Alaska Legislature couldn't dream of pulling off.

The shame of all this nasty talk is that it's just the standard pettiness that comes from losing an election, and in this case it's likely a bunch of insiders sticking knives into Palin and hoping for jobs in the next election cycle -- which starts a whole 100 weeks from now or so. Less, if you can wangle a staff job with a PAC. The maneuvering for 2012 at this point is pretty unseemly. David Frum, no Palin fan, blames Nicole Wallace, a former Bush staffer who worked for the McCain campaign. The kinds of things that are coming out are petty and catty, like she answered the door to her suite in a bathrobe. You mean, she didn't let the staffers stand in the hall? Goodness, how inappropriate...or something? Sounds like the kind of thing someone used to taking care of her own business would do, that's the mark of a humble person, not an arrogant one.

It's a shame the McCain campaign people weren't as effective at real politics as they seem to be at office politics. Could have made a difference.

Senator Palin?

Ted Stevens, Alaska's senior Senator (and newest felon!) might win his re-election bid after being convicted of perjury for failing to report $250,000 in home improvements an oil services company performed for him. If elected, he will most likely face censure and expulsion from the Senate, if not jail time, so he will not be serving. Alaska law requires a short-interval election within 90 days, so someone will be replacing him and will run against (most likely) Mark Begich.

Sarah could run, but it would be a bad idea. First, it looks like naked political ambition. She was elected governor, she should serve out her term. Second, if she wants to run as a Senator, Lisa Murkowski is up for reelection in 2010. I have nothing personal against Lisa Murkowski, but with the name there's probably a body or two buried somewhere and if she has ethical issues Sarah has the opportunity to run. Waiting is better. If she gets to appoint someone, I imagine she will appoint Sean Parnell, the Lt. Governor who she supported in the primary against Don Young.

Finally, being a Senator probably wouldn't add much to her resume. It would destroy her "Washington Outsider" credentials, which are probably going to be really useful because the Reid/Pelosi/Obama group have challenges before them their ideological bent does not prepare them for (war, recession, crushing debt) and their chances of screwing something up badly are very high. She will benefit from staying out of the blast radius of the debacle as much as Barack Obama did from being a state Senator during the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force vote before the Iraq War.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T

For someone who was such a punching bag for Saturday Night Live, the real Sarah Palin seemed to really make an impact on at least three people: Lorne Michaels, Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin. None of these folks would you expect to be political allies, and none of them are. But they have an interesting perspective, politics has been described as "Hollywood for ugly people", there is a certain similarity in what they do. Performers in Hollywood know they are at the apex of a very high and steep pyramid where only the best get where they are, and then with more than a little luck. When the guy that launched the careers of Bill Murray, John Belushi, Eddie Murphy, Mike Myers and Chris Farley, among many others says:

What do you think Palin gained from her appearance?
I think Palin will continue to be underestimated for a while. I watched the way she connected with people, and she's powerful. Her politics aren't my politics. But you can see that she's a very powerful, very disciplined, incredibly gracious woman. This was her first time out and she's had a huge impact. People connect to her.

She's a ratings magnet, too — do you think she can land a development deal if this VP thing doesn't work out?
She could pretty much do better than development. I think she could have her own show, yeah.

Lest you miss it, "I think she could have her own show" is a bit of a compliment. Maybe it's a way to get her out of politics and into something where Lorne feels she could do less damage, but either way it's a compliment.

Even Alec "I'm going to move to France" Baldwin is fairly circumspect in his criticism of her during his appearance on Letterman:


Same for Tina Fey on Conan O'Brien.


Obviously, it's easier to be nasty when you're being anonymous and not-for-attribution to Carl Cameron behind the campaign bus, and harder to do it when you're on-camera with Conan or Dave. Nevertheless, there is some acknowledgment from people pretty close to the top of their game in working in front of cameras that Sarah Palin has...something.

What she does have, and more importantly can communicate very well, is a general happiness about her life as an American. Of all the gifts that Reagan had, this was his most potent. Nothing draws people like happiness and love, and Sarah Palin is at her best when she communicates these things. If she can add an uncrackable knowledge base to that, she'll be a fierce competitor in the next election cycle. Contrary to popular belief and MSM assumption, conservatives really are happy. It's kind of our little secret, but when someone like Sarah Palin can get onstage in front of 40 million people and be conservative and happy at the same time, well that snaps the needle off the approval meter for conservatives. If being an Angry Conservative was enough, Pat Buchanan would have been GOP nominee for life.

Then again, after this turn as the punching bag, she might decide to just raise her kids, stay in Alaska and remember that couple of months when she was the first female GOP nominee for Vice-President. It would be our loss, I believe, but I think she's earned some peace and quiet.

My VP Debate Wrap-Up

After some consideration, this is my conclusion about the debate.

Joe Biden clearly and convincingly defeated George W. Bush in this debate, President Bush being absent. He also forcefully stated that as VP under Obama, in the face of economic crisis he would not pursue the tax policies of his opponent, John McCain, then went on to list the things he would not be in favor of cutting despite the fact that the bailout bill added another trillion or so to the national debt. He would "slow down" foreign aid commitments, which he later described as vital to winning in Afghanistan. As Bill Hobbs points out, this is "slowing down" a doubling of US foreign aid amounting to $25 billion a year -- against an annual deficit of hundreds of billions.

Palin dodged some questions, the wisest dodge was on the issue of the Unitary Executive and the role of the VP, which is an inside-baseball topic of interest primarily to Con Law professors and something she likely knows virtually nothing about. Joe Biden put on his Con Law professor hat and proceeded to quote the wrong part of the Constitution regarding the role of the VP as Executive Branch. "Everyone should know that," he said. I question whether "everyone should know" something that's patently wrong. Article I, Section 3 refers to the office of Vice-President, it is the part of the Constitution dealing with legislative structure and function. Article II has to do with the Executive.

Joe Biden was fully in command of the facts he made up out of whole cloth during the debate. He showed a far greater range of familiarity with his own fabrications than his opponent. In this regard, he was clearly the winner, as shown by focus group polling from Katie's Restaurant in Wilmington, DE, which has been closed since 1990. He showed boldness by contradicting the Obama website on sitting down President-to-President with Achmedinejad without preconditions. He also showed boldness by contradicting himself on the issue of coal plants. Speaking untruth to power has never had a bolder advocate. In my opinion, Joe Biden is never more convincing and genuine than when seamlessly weaving made-up facts into his statements, and I believe that is an important qualification when choosing a Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate.

But really, I think Palin came out ahead. She lied less, for one, and she's authentic in a way Joe hasn't been for a couple of decades. Considering that this is her first national debate and his third run for the Presidency (this time as VP), he didn't blow her out and she was able to score on him in her vicious-yet-nice way, which is a true political gift. She did not defend McCain as well as I would have liked, a more experienced politician might have seen more opportunities and I can't help but believe that she still could have done better. Nevertheless, she did exceptionally well. Like I said in the liveblog, they need to come up with another word for "maverick", my personal feeling is that the word has attracted as many people as it's going to attract. Drop it, or use it once and then use a synonym.

It didn't change much for the race, but it changed a lot for Sarah Palin. You can bet she'll subscribe to Foreign Affairs and, if she loses, spend the next four years getting the experience and knowledge to run on her own. She's a bit uneducated from a national and world affairs standpoint, which is what you expect from a remote state governor. Ask Biden about the status of salmon fisheries and he'll make something up, but she's probably right on top of that one. Get Biden to talk about anything other than John McCain's votes on alternative energy and he'll tell you a heartwarming story about Bill's Oil & Coal in Wilmington that never existed, or modify a Frank McCourt story about how his family had to make one piece of coal last all winter because President Willkie was such a bad Republican president back in the 1940s. Energy is Palin's issue, and she wasn't asked a single question about it.

She's a superb communicator, and couple that with more experience and she'll be deadly. She is probably about as physically attractive as a woman seeking political power can be without being off-putting to other women, what she lacks is a few more years in the governor's chair and easy familiarity with issues compelling to reporters and media folks. She needs to tone down the homespun a notch, but she's got the right instincts and she'll be a player for years.

She might even be Bobby Jindal.

Sarah+Palin Joe+Biden debate

Near-Liveblogging The Debate

Through the miracle of TiVo and a new HDTV aerial (new today) I can see every one of Joe Biden's hairplugs. Amazing. Anyway, I'm about 20 minutes behind, so refresh to see my take as it goes along.

Joe is muted and low-key

Sarah blew the answer about the financial issue. She blamed the 'Predatory lenders' without mentioning the effects of the CRA, without mentioning the actions of Freddie & Fannie.

She is bright and assertive but a little hyperkinetic. So far she's able to bring details without having to look like she's straining.

Joe is hammering deregulation, she's not responding and sticking on the tax issue. Needs to stop using the term 'heat up' the economy.

Next question: why is raising taxes not class warfare?

Joe "It's called fairness". Hmm. 30% of income tax filers don't pay any taxes. "Simple fairness" IS class warfare. $300 billion to corporate America.

Sarah "redistribution of wealth" good reframe. And she hits the small business issue. Needs to meniton S Corporations. Backwards way of growing the economy. Nice. Looked like she was going to duck the question on health care. Handled it well. "Unless you're pleased with the way the federal government has run much of anything..." Tap that anger, girl. She also snuck in the word 'Universal' -- that's a Frank Luntz word.

Joe is making a lot of hay out of the tax credit for healthcare. Spouts a lot of numbers but I doubt his specifics. I will have to look this up. $12K per insured, that's a lot of money. Maybe more than the entire private health insurance market.

Ifill reasks the "what promises will you not be able to keep?"

Joe Biden promises to slow down foreign aid, and not to keep John McCain's campaign promises regarding taxes. Will keep alternative energy, education, health care. Eliminate wasteful spending, mentions $100 billion tax dodge for offshore tax havens.

Doesn't tell one thing to one group & one to another. Energy bill 2005 -- "That's what gave those oil companies those big tax breaks" Biden used the $4 billion for XOM line twice, she turned it around and sank it in his eye socket. No, there's no promises we won't keep.

Biden responds that Barack Obama voted for it because it had alternative energy things, tried to strip it out. He calls her severance tax a "windfall profits tax", which it's not. If that is not proof of what I say then I don't know what is. Well, if you lie about it, then does it count as proof.

She's hammering the corruption and greed of Wall Street issue. John McCain to thank for failing to get his bill passed. "A toxic mess on Main Street that is affecting Wall Street." As Willy Wonka would say, "Strike that, reverse it."

Ifill asks about the bankruptcy bill -- it's complicated, Biden says. We should be allowing bankruptcy courts to adjust the principal you owe as well as your interest rate. That sounds fishy. Used to be that when you lost your stuff when you declared bankruptcy. The whole penalties thing?

8:29pm

Brief answer from Palin to deflect the bankruptcy issue and then back to energy. She's doing remarkably well so far, few flubs. She's kind of lecturing here, but hammering the ANWR issue. Energy independence is the key to this nation's future. Needs to stop using "heckuva".

Q: What is true and what is false regarding climate change? I don't want to argue about the causes of climate change, want to figure out how we can do that. All of the above plan. As we rely more and more on other countries.

Biden: It is man-made, it is clearly man-made. The cause is man-made. Gives the 3% of reserves/25% of consumption line, which minimizes our true reserves and ignores unproven offshore reserves as well as natural gas and the trillion barrels of oil shale we have. John McCain voted 20 times against alternative energy. Obama-biden wants to develop energy that needs subsidies to be competitive and try to sell that to the rest of the world. No-go in China or India, Joe. Coal is King there and will be for sure in China

Palin does support capping carbon emissions. Joe supports clean coal technology for 25 years, despite his rope-line comment. Maybe he's all for it if the go government doesn't have to pay for it.

Joe Biden supports gay marriage. First gaffe. Saran-does not support gay marriage. Now neither Joe Biden & Barack Obama do not support gay marriage. So much for the people who think Barack Obama is a closet gay marriage supporter.

Iraq: Palin sounds like she knows this. Compliments Biden on standing up to Obama regarding a political vote.

Biden: needs an exit strategy, needs a time table. Palin says we'll go when we're ready, when the Iraqis can govern themselves. She points out that Biden says he would have been proud to be VP candidate for McCain. skewers him effortlessly.

Biden says Pak nukes could hit Israel. Wrong, I believe. Between nuclear Iran and unstable Pakistan he chooses unstable Pakistan. Sarah says both are important but talks about how a nuclear Iran is dangerous. Gets into the "no preconditions" line. Talks about her meeting with Kissinger. Biden bald-faced lies about what Obama said at a Democratic debate HE WAS AT. Misrepresents what McCain said as well.

Palin is clear and articulate on need for a two-state solution. Sounds entirely reasonable. Biden is now running against George W. Bush. He is four years too late for that. Biden: haven't heard how the policy is different from Bush's.

8:55 When do we use nuclear weapons? Palin answers a line about not allowing nuclear proliferation. Makes point about using surge principle In Afghanistan. Biden says CG in Afghanistan says (today) that surge would not work. Mentions Obama-Lugar as if it's important - an update to a 1991 law makes a big difference how? Makes a statement about spending in 3 weeks in Iraq the same as in 7 years in Afghanistan. Ignores difference in geography, technology, etc.

Biden makes an impassioned speech about Darfur. Palin agrees, a little too smarmy, but then mentions divesting Alaska's investments in Sudan. Didn't know that.

9:05 pm: When do we go into another country? Biden if we can win, makes a statement about countries and when we can invade. Palin needles him again about his voting record and statements, she's hammered this enough that she had better have a couple of Aces in terms of backup documentation.

So what if your President dies? Neither one will change anything.

What a Vice-President does? Palin: working with the Senate, she would lead in areas of Energy, Senate, special-needs children. Biden: Senate, advising President, He will tell president if he disagrees. Ifill asks about Cheney's assertion regarding the split nature of VP as Executive vs. Legislative. Palin ducks the question, wisely. Biden gives a long answer that is probably too much inside baseball.

Conventional Wisdom: Palin is inexperienced, Biden undisciplined. Palin makes a good speech. Biden says he's changed things, tears up when talking about his kids. Pain responds, needs to stop using the term 'Maverick'. It's getting annoying. Find another way to say it. Biden: "Maverick he is not."

Final question: What policy position have you changed? Biden: position re: judicial confirmation. Palm; wasn't able to zero-balance budgets, no compromises on principle.

Now the real final question: How do you stop the partisanship as VP? Biden: Don't question others' motives. Palin: get the job done, don't worry about credit.

Final statements: Palin: I like Reagan. McCain fought for you. Biden: it's time for America to stand up together.

Especially people making $250K or more. It's easier to get at their wallets that way.

Debate over. Palin survived, not broken or dispirited. Biden only gaffed once, wasn't nasty. Both did a good job. Hard to pick a winner, Pain maybe wins by not losing, but not by much.

First Interview

Sarah Palin's first interview with Charlie Gibson came out tonight on World News Tonight.

Overall, not bad. Not as good as the speech, but she didn't hemm and haw much. She did steer the 'What is your background national security issues' question back to her background in energy, which is a pretty typical dodge to familiar ground. In her defense, many of her critics would tell you we've been fighting the Iraq War for oil, so there is some bearing on the issue.

She did duck the Russia question. Being able to see Russia from shore in Alaska is not a recitation of the issues you've dealt with as governor -- fishing rights disputes, etc. Hey, she's a governor. I'm pretty sure the governor of Virginia doesn't have much national security experience either.

The 'not widely travelled' meme was brought up, which is to my mind a bit of a hollow criticism. How many people grow up without significant means and yet manage to do a full tour of the Louvre? She did manage to add Canada and Mexico to the countries she's been to -- which may be easily dismissed were it not for the fact that Canada is our largest trading partner and Mexico is not far behind. I somehow doubt she got beyond Cozumel, but hey.

She is no Miss Teen South Carolina. She was wise to question Charlie Gibson about what aspect of the Bush Doctrine he meant, there have been several breaks with tradition in the Bush Administration, and virtually none of them have been labelled 'The Bush Doctrine' by GWB himself. My first thought when he mentioned that term was supporting democracy and opposing totalitarianism.

I don't believe Charlie Gibson can be fairly accused of pitching softballs. His questions were tough but fair. There was a series of questions at the end that discussed her views on God and the Iraq War, she referred back to Abraham Lincoln though I would honestly say that her reference is a bit strained. She did manage to not come across like a total religious kook on the issue, she gets rather impassioned about extending freedoms to people, which is admirable though she comes across as trying to sell something Gibson's not buying in that segment.

UPDATE: Apparently Gibson's quote of what she said left out a couple of words. She said, "Pray that our national leaders are sending our troops on a task that is from God." Abraham Lincoln's quote fits better into the context of "Pray that our national leaders..."

This interview will not endear her to those that dislike her already. They will call her 'George W. Bush with lipstick', and will interpret extending NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia as warmongering even though that is clearly a cooperative agreement. She pronounced 'Saakashvili' properly, still having issues with 'nuk-yu-ler', but I'm not going to quibble about that one. Jimmy Carter was a nuclear engineer and pronounces it worse, if possible. I am glad she was unequivocal about the Russian aggression in Georgia, I see it that way as well.

She needs a little more work on these questions, but maybe the domestic issues will be better for her. I hope she can put a stake in the "she lied about the Bridge To Nowhere" issue. There was a lot of editing, which can either help or hurt. She could have looked worse or better depending on what they cut out.

I think there is going to be a big sigh of relief at the Obama HQ tonight, particularly from the VP section. She may not be the Terminator in heels.

One Reason I Hope McCain-Palin Wins

My favorite story about Ronald Reagan was written by William Bennett as a letter to the late President after he announced his diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease:

Congressman Dana Rohrbacher remembers a moment when he was a young campaign staffer back in California. You were giving a whistle stop speech, and there was a small group of blind children in the crowd. Their teacher asked if you could greet them.

Sure, you agreed, but not with the photographers or reporters around. After the press had left, Rohrbacher saw you go to the children and shake their hands. Then you knelt so they could "see" you by touching your face.

"What politician can you think of who would not have given a million dollars to have the press get pictures of him in a scene like that?" marveled Rohrbacher, "But not Reagan."

I just love the idea of this big, tough conservative guy smiling as little hands put a face to his voice in their own way. I really love that he did it away from the cameras, not for credit but out of respect and decency.

That's the kind of person I want as my President. I could care less, honestly, if they can rattle off from memory the name of the Defense Minister for Uzbekistan. They have people for that. I care more about what kind of person they are.

Which is probably why these the stories of 'A' and Chloe and their families are something I find admirable.

Here's a quote from the story about 'A':

I can’t give you the conversation by word, but she said, “Awwww” and kind of melted when she saw A. She asked her name and age. Then she hugged her. She actually got watery eyes (ed. 3rd and 4th pictures below, you can kind of see that). Remember, even though she is Governor, VP candidate, she is still new to the world of DS. She said she was so glad we brought A to see her. She just kept smiling and looking at A. I told her we brought a gift for Trig and gave her the t-shirt. (ed. Cousin ordered a t-shirt for Trig that said “fearfully and wonderfully made.” I thought that was sweet.) I told her that I have such admiration for her because when A was Trig’s age, I was still crying …. Oh yeah, I just remembered - A blew kisses to both John McCain and to Sarah during our little visits.

You're not going to read about this in the New York Times or Washington Post, and I have no evidence that Barack Obama doesn't do this kind of thing as well. But let's face it, we're down to something like 1300 hours before the election, and while you can cynically call this 'masterful retail politics' the fact that some of that time is being devoted to meeting with, acknowledging and supporting families like this makes me proud of the folks on the GOP ticket.

I'm sure a campaign is a long and difficult thing for all involved. You need to fuel up, physically, mentally and spiritually, and be careful where you spend that fuel. It makes me happy to see where McCain and Palin fuel themselves up.

That's all.

Sarah+Palin John+McCain decency

To paraphrase Senator Lloyd Bentsen from 20 years ago, "I know passive-aggression, Senator Obama, and you're passive-aggressive." As commenter Tim Ryan sent to Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit.com:

"He's a skilled orator, and he brings it all back around to McCain and Palin. It is absolutely clear that he is tying Palin to the Pig and McCain to the Old Fish. He didn't construct this accidentally or innocently. Unless you think that he isn't skilled or smart, and we all know that he is. He tries to create some plausible deniability, but there are only two explanations - he is either a mean-spirited p***, or he's an idiot. And the latter simply isn't true."

This is that kind of scratch-your-eye-while-you-flip-someone-off snark that I guess is going to be the new Democratic meme, huh? Hey, I say, go for it. Make fart jokes about Vladimir Putin's last name, that's a great idea, too.

As long as the Democrats are going to go this route, I have some ideas:

1. Refer to McCain's policies as "that same old GOP rag."
2 Slip in the phrase, "If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen."

'Cause, those are common phrases, too, you know. No double-meaning there. I really question the wisdom of trying this with Joe Biden, walking a careful line of deniability is not one of Joe's strong suits. He's bound to step over the line, and soon.

Although I've made a post about this, the McCain campaign needs to just let this little verbal turd on Obama's part sit and steam. Stepping in it will just make Palin look weak and in need of defense, and I think that when you have a quick and funny candidate like Sarah Palin and a zinger speechwriter like Matt Scully there is a way to jiu-jitsu this one back on Obama with gentle humor.

I do have to admit I would like to see her give a little speech segment like this:

"The fact that Obama took three days to get to the right answer that John McCain had on Georgia must have been a shock to the Obama campaign. With their foreign policy credibility receding, and questions regarding the Senator's poor coverage of the event that might lead to questioning the strength of Senator Obama's foreign policy experience, there was clearly a problem. His Vice-Presidential search operation grafted in Joe Biden to plug the holes in Obama's already thin resume. This was a clear attempt to cover over his deficiencies, but I think we all know what they should have done. They should have called John McCain.

I don't think they should do that. But it would be funny.

But not as funny as a Presidential candidate getting his speeches from a political cartoon:

Joe Biden's old habits seem to be rubbing off on you, Senator Obama.


Sarah+Palin Lipstick Barack+Obama